ECB: No action is expected as the need for yield curve control decreases

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the pace of bond purchases in the most recent meeting, as an action against the rising bond yields in the previous March 11 meeting, while the general structure of Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) have not changed. ... Devamı

Spreads and predictions in ECB and Fed "blackout" week

Inflation will not be the main criterion for the Fed. Inflation will be allowed to rise for a period, and we will watch consumer inflation above 3% for a period. ... Devamı

US Treasury Report: No currency manipulator, China in monitoring list

In the first foreign currency report of the Biden period; Although all the criteria were met, trading partners such as Switzerland, Vietnam and Taiwan were avoided as currency manipulators. ... Devamı

China: Economy grows 18.3% in 1Q21 due to base effect

China's National Bureau of Statistics said that GDP increased by 18.3% in 1Q21 compared to a year ago. ... Devamı

US: Stimulus and recovery effect on economic activity data

An important data as a reflection of economic activity and spending capacity; On the retail sales side, we see a 9.8% increase in the headline and an 8.2% increase in core sales excluding gasoline and automobiles. ... Devamı

CBRT takes the action on the text: Signs of early easing with a more dovish text

It was certain that the Central Bank's current decision would not be the scene of a hasty move in terms of lowering interest rates. ... Devamı

Turkey: The budget has a surplus in March due to the Central Bank's profit

According to the March budget data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance; The budget balance, which gave a surplus of 23.2 billion TRY in February 2021, gave a surplus of 23.8 billion TRY in March 2021. The budget had a deficit of TRY 43.7 billion in the same period last year. ... Devamı

Critical turning point for CBRT: The policy mechanism to have its first serious test

Tomorrow, we will follow the decision from the Central Bank meeting in an environment where it is clear that the upward pressure in inflation will continue in the coming months, we bear a higher risk cost compared to before 19th March, and we will perhaps need higher interest rates to convince the markets. ... Devamı

US: March inflation surges above expectations

In the USA, headline CPI increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis and increased by 2.6% on an annual basis in March. ... Devamı

Turkey: Despite the partial slowdown in I/P, the monthly and annual growth trend continues

According to calendar adjusted data, Turkey’s industrial production in February increased by 8.8% compared to the same month of the previous year; Seasonal and calendar adjusted industrial production, on the other hand, increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. ... Devamı

Turkey: Unemployment rate at 13.4% in February

In February, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 13.4% compared to the same month last year’s 12.7%, with an increase of 0.7 points. ... Devamı

Turkey: The current account balance has a deficit for 16 consecutive months in February

In February, current account balance in Turkey gave USD 2.61 billion deficit. ... Devamı

Time emphasis for QE, possible fate of Biden packages

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 16-17 were published. ... Devamı

FOMC minutes and QE tapering issue

The minutes of the 16-17 March FOMC meeting, which will be announced tonight, are important in terms of the Fed's approach to recent economic developments and movements in the bond curve. ... Devamı

Turkey: March inflation is expected to increase with the effect of import prices and oil

Following the Central Bank's messages that it is understood that inflation will continue to be the main policy focus, we will enter the new week by watching the March inflation data. ... Devamı

US: Labor market data and NFP preview

There will be a big focus on non-farm payroll data to be released tomorrow. ... Devamı

Turkey PMI: PMI remains in growth position for 10 months

According to the data announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and IHS Markit; Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.7 to 52.6 in March. ... Devamı

Turkey: Foreign trade deficit at 3.30 billion USD in February

According to the February GTS (General Trade System) foreign trade data announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce; Turkey's exports in February 2021 increased by 9.6% compared to the same period of the previous year USD 16.01 billion, while imports increased by 9.4% in the same period amounted to 19.31 billion USD. ... Devamı

Turkey: Economic confidence increaes in March

Turkey’s economic confidence index rose to 98.6 in March, from February’s 95.8 index value. Increase in the index; resulted from increases in consumer, real sector (manufacturing industry), services and retail trade sector confidence indices ... Devamı

Current bond market dynamics

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill rose to 1.77%. Investors believe that US President Joe Biden's spending plan will further boost economic recovery and therefore inflation. ... Devamı

رد الصين على المزاعم: 70 بالمائة من القطن يتم حصاده بالآلات في شينجيانغ

 ردت وزارة الخارجية الصينية على مزاعم "العمل القسري" في شينجيانغ من قبل بعض الشركات والدول. ... Devamı

Biden infrastructure package, bond market dynamics and spreads

Biden is expected to explain the details of the new infrastructure and aid plan in his speech that will take place tomorrow. ... Devamı

US: Social benefits effect on income and spending

According to personal income and expenditure data published today; In February, income decreased by 7.1%, disposable income by 8% and personal consumption expenditures by 1%. ... Devamı

Real sector confidence index increases to the highest of 3 years in March

While the positive image continues in the real sector confidence index data of March announced by the Central Bank, the raw data point to the highest levels since April 2018 and the adjusted data since February 2018. ... Devamı

US: GDP revision, jobless claims and Powell

According to the 3rd reading data released today, the US GDP growth was revised upwards by 4.3% in 4Q20. ... Devamı

أمير سعودي يعلن دعمه لسياسات الصين في شينجيانغ وهونغ كونغ

 كان وزير الخارجية الصيني وانغ يي في السعودية قبل زيارته الحرجة لأنقرة.  وقال وانغ ، خلال لقائه مع ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان بن عبد العزيز آل سعود ، في الاجتماع ، إن الصين تعتبر المملكة العربية السعودية شريكًا استراتيجيًا مهمًا في الشرق الأوسط ، وأن تطوير العلاقات بين البلدين هو أحد أولويات الصين سياسة الشرق الأوسط. ... Devamı

European data: Record growth acceleration impact in the manufacturing sector

Markit has published preliminary forecasts for March PMIs today. While the services sector in the EU seems to remain in a contraction zone (country by country Germany has moved into growth zone), manufacturing production continues to gain momentum in expansion levels. ... Devamı

London TRY swap rates

After the last change in the Central Bank and the fluctuations in the lira due to the policy change concerns, the TRY swap rates in the foreign money markets in London have also come to the fore. ... Devamı

Fed SLR announcement and bond market

On Friday, a statement was made by the Fed for the leverage rates (SLR) provided to banks. ... Devamı

Central Bank reshuffle and first reflections

After the change of mandate at the Central Bank, the markets started the week quite volatile, and the USDTRY in illiquid transactions in Asia reached 8.47 levels. ... Devamı

CBRT matches TRY swap rate to policy rate after MPC

Following the MPC decision, the Central Bank raised the policy rate by 200 basis points; TRY interest rate used in USDTRY swap auctions increased from 17% to 19%. ... Devamı

Fed policy and economic concerns

While analyzing the Fed's decisions; We have observed that the current momentum of the economy instills more pass-through to the upward revision in short-term projections, but the effects diminish as the term gets longer. It constitutes a valid situation for the whole of the main trio of growth, inflation and employment. In other words, when the supported growing economy effect is left behind, it is observed that there will still be differences if the economy is compared with the state without crisis supports in 2019. Especially on the basis of employment ... Devamı

Fed to take care of delicate balances

In Fed decisions; We observe that the economic projections are revised depending on the size of the recovery, whereas short-term effects are predicted more significant than medium and long-term effects. ... Devamı

CBRT: Inflation outlook increases the pressure for rate hike

We think that the inflation risks that have increased recently have weighted the factors that will form the basis for the Central Bank's interest rate hike. ... Devamı

Fed not to take action against bond yields at this stage

While the Fed's meeting is expected to be concluded tomorrow, no action is expected at this stage against bond yields. ... Devamı

Turkey: The budget gives a surplus in February with the increase in tax revenues

According to the February budget data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance; The budget balance, which had a deficit of 24.2 billion TRY in January 2021, gave a surplus of 23.2 billion TRY in February 2021. ... Devamı

Turkey: Industrial production increases above expectations in January

According to calendar adjusted data, Turkey’s industrial production in January increased by 11.4% compared to the same month of the previous year; Seasonal and calendar adjusted industrial production, on the other hand, increased by 1% compared to the previous month. According to the unregulated data, there was an increase of 7.5% in industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year. Our estimation was that industrial production increased by 8.9% on an annual basis and 0.3% on a monthly basis in December. ... Devamı

ECB increases purchasing speed to control yield curve

The European Central Bank, which did not make any changes in the total PEPP size and interest rates as expected, announced that it will increase the pace of asset purchases in the coming months in order to contain the rising bond yields that could adversely affect the economic recovery of the region. ... Devamı

Turkey: The current account balance has a deficit of 1.87 billion USD in January

In January, the current account balance in Turkey, gave USD 1.87 billion deficit. ... Devamı

US: February inflation, bond issues, financial package

In the USA, headline CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and increased by 1.7% on an annual basis in February. ... Devamı

ECB decisions: The yield curve and the issue of asset purchases

Recently, increasing bond yields and steepening yield curves have turned the attention to the policy decisions of major central banks. ... Devamı

Turkey: Unemployment rate at 12.2% in January with the change in methodology

TurkStat made the expected methodology change in unemployment rates this month and started to announce it co-periodically with Europe, using a revised calculation method and in line with ILO standards. ... Devamı

Economic incentives, inflation expectations, Central banks and the bond market

The Biden financial package, which is the largest stimulus package in US history, also passed the Senate stage. (Tera Yatırım) ... Devamı

US: Headline payrolls data raises concerns for fast recovery for markets

In the US, non-farm payrolls, which is expected to increase by 200K according to the Bloomberg terminal, increased 379K in February, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. ... Devamı

Critical threshold for economic transformation: The reform package

With the changing of the economic paradigm and the transition to the implementation phase of the new generation policies, the reform agenda in economic policies is among the issues that we carefully follow, as well as the change in the monetary policy perspective. (Tera Yatırım) ... Devamı

Bond yields before Powell and jobs report

We observe that bond yields pick up again before Powell and NFP. ... Devamı

Turkey: Inflation picks up, increases the proactivity pressure on the Central Bank

Turkey’s consumer prices increased by 0.91% in February, while annual inflation was realized as 15.61%. ... Devamı

Treasury bond yields and policy options

Ahead of the Fed announcements on March 17 and this week's Powell speech, options for intervention in rising bond yields for central banks began to circulate. ... Devamı

10-year bond yields and Fed policy correlation

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bill briefly exceeded 1.6% last Thursday, hitting the highest level in more than a year, fueled by expectations of higher economic growth and inflation. ... Devamı

Turkey PMI: Industry, which loses momentum in February, continues to remain in growth position

According to the data announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and IHS Markit; Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.4 to 51.7 in February. ... Devamı

Turkey's economy records 1.8% growth in the pandemic year

Turkey's GDP recorded an increase of 5.9% compared to the previous year in 4Q20 period, showed a higher performance from all G-20 countries except China. ... Devamı