US inflation rises with monthly spending, demand expected to remain weak

While the headline CPI increased by 0.6% on a monthly and annual basis in June in the USA, core CPI increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remains at annually 1.2%. ... Devamı

ECB decisions and EU Leaders Summit

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold the July meeting on Thursday (July 16th), which is not expected to change interest rates. ... Devamı

I/P shows Covid effect for annual data, low base effect for monthly data

Turkey’s May working day adjusted industrial production, contracted by 19.9% compared to the same month of the previous year. ... Devamı

Uncertainties persist in the balance of payments view

In May, the current account balance in Turkey, gave 3.8 billion USD deficit. ... Devamı

Unemployment rate remains low thanks to labor market measures

In April, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 12.8% compared to same month last year’s 13%. ... Devamı

Inflation outlook increases the upward risks

Consumer prices in Turkey showed an increase of 1.13% in June, while the annual inflation was realized as 12.6%. Economists participating in the Bloomberg survey and our expectation were to achieve a monthly inflation rate of 0.6% and 12% annually. In this regard, we see that the data is higher than the generally high expectations. ... Devamı

The foreign trade deficit at 2.84 billion USD in June

According to the leading June foreign trade data announced by the Ministry of Commerce within the scope of GTS (general trade system); Compared to the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 15.77% to 13.47 billion USD, while imports decreased by 8.24% in the same period to 16.31 billion USD. In this context, foreign trade deficit decreased by 17.31% in June period and became 2.84 billion USD. ... Devamı

Conditional and periodic effects increase the inflation risk

Turkey’s June inflation figures will be released on Friday. Our expectation is that, monthly inflation and annual inflation will be 0.6% and 12% respectively, in June. ... Devamı

Employment growth depends on the continuation of the economic recovery

Following the report indicating an increase of 2.5 million jobs in the US in May, an increase of 3 million people is expected in the non-farm payrolls report to be announced tomorrow. ... Devamı

Foreign trade balance gives a deficit of 3.42 billion USD in May

According to the GTS (General trade system) foreign trade data of May announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Trade; Turkey's exports in May of 2020, indicates a decrease of 40.9% compared to the same period of the previous year to 9.97 billion USD, while imports decreased by 27.8% in the same period amounted to 13.39 billion USD. ... Devamı

Fed announces bank stress test results

In the light of the bank stress test results announced on Thursday evening, the Fed asked banks to limit their dividend payments until 4Q20 and not to buy back shares. ... Devamı

CBRT evaluates the risks of inflation and capital movements

Despite the market's 25 basis points interest rate cut expectations, the Central Bank has suspended the interest rate cut that it has maintained since July 2019, keeping the policy rate constant at 8%. ... Devamı

Industry leading indicators reflect the recovery from bottom

In the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate data announced by the Central Bank in June, the recovery effects from the bottom continue to increase compared to the previous month. ... Devamı

Recovery from the bottom? Sustainability?

PMI data from Europe points to a more positive outlook than expected, and the first effects that came with economic openings showed that recovery is continuing. (Tera Yatırım) ... Devamı

CBRT revises the reserve requirement regulation

“To provide banks with flexibility in meeting the loan demand specific to this period, the CBRT has decided to temporarily (until the year end) suspend the enforcement of the rule of having adjusted real loan growth rate below 15% for the banks with a real annual loan growth rate above 15% in order to be able to benefit from reserve requirement incentives.” ... Devamı

CBRT Survey of Expectations: The year-end inflation expectation at 9.54%

In the CBRT June Expectation Survey, market participants' current year-end inflation expectation was 9.54%. ... Devamı

The necessity of “cautious” dovish stance in monetary policies

Powell did not make any changes to his picture of the economy in his semi annual presentation before the Senate, and he continued his rhetoric at the last Fed meeting. ... Devamı

Fed stimulus moves and Powell statements

Fed made two important statements within the scope of ongoing stimulus moves. ... Devamı

Extending economic stimulus to affect the budget deficit

According to the May budget data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance; Budget balance, which had a deficit of 43.2 billion TRY in April 2020, had a deficit of 17.3 billion TRY in May 2020. ... Devamı

I/P collapse with Covid conditions in April

Turkey’s April working day adjusted industrial production, contracted by 31.4% compared to the same month of the previous year. ... Devamı

Covid effects expected to be a fragility factor for current account balance

In April, the current account balance in Turkey, gave USD 5.1 billion deficit. ... Devamı

Fed's open-ended strategy in monetary expansion to continue for a long time

We have left behind the Fed statements everyone expected. The policy statement does not reveal a positive picture of the economy, as expected, and this is also reflected in the expectations of FOMC members. ... Devamı

Insufficiency of narrow unemployment definition

In March, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 13.2% compared to same month last year’s 14.1%. ... Devamı

May payrolls report surprises

Payrolls in the USA, which is expected to decrease by 8 million in May, increased by 2.5 million while unemployment, which is expected to increase to 19.7%, decreased to 13.3%. ... Devamı

ECB expected to expand asset purchases

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its June meeting tomorrow, where it will also update its economic forecasts. ... Devamı

Inflation risks seem balanced

May inflation in Turkey, will be announced on Wednesday. Our expectation is that, monthly inflation and annual inflation will be 0.9% and 10.9% respectively, in May ... Devamı

Manufacturing recovers from bottom in May, still in contraction position

According to the data announced by Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and IHS Markit; manufacturing PMI which was at 33.4 in April with recession-induced effects related to Covid-19 in the economy, stood at 40.9 in May, with some recovery from the bottom. ... Devamı

About BRSA asset ratio revision

The BRSA went to revision in terms of the asset ratio criterion applicable to banks at the weekend. First of all, if we share the current version of the formula; ... Devamı

Pandemic effects seem to effective for a long time

In the first quarter, where the leading effects of the coronavirus pandemic were observed, the US economy shrank by 5% on an annualized basis. ... Devamı

Turkey – Qatar swap deal and other possible deals

CBRT increased the current swap deal with Qatar CB to 15 billion USD equilavent. The 5 billion USD swap deal between the two central banks in 2018 was thus extended by another 10 billion USD. ... Devamı

Fujitsu Offers Free Access to Intellectual Property Rights to Support Fight Against COVID-19

Fujitsu Limited today announced that as part of its ongoing efforts to mitigate the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will commit to the "Open COVID Pledge," which promotes free access to participants' intellectual property rights for activities aimed at ending the global spread of the disease. ... Devamı

Low tax revenues and economic stimulus weigh on budget due to pandemic effect

According to the April budget data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance; Budget balance, which had a deficit of 43.7 billion TRY in March 2020, had a deficit of 43.2 billion TRY in April 2020. ... Devamı

Inflation as an equation with multiple variables

Turkey’s consumer prices had increased 0.85% in April, while annual inflation was realized as 10.9%. While the forecast median of the economists participating in the Bloomberg survey was 0.6%, the forecast range was between 0.2% and 1.4%. For inflation equation, we see that negative and positive factors coexist. ... Devamı

CBRT expectations, BRSA's asset ratio step and FX swap issue

The decision of the asset ratio made by the BRSA over the weekend is aimed at ensuring that private banks give more loans. ... Devamı

About the BRSA swap move

The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency limited the transaction amount to 1% of the bank's calculated equity in swaps, futures, options and derivative transactions made by foreigners from Turkish banks. ... Devamı

Number of COVID-19 deaths in Turkey reaches 1006

Turkey's Minister of Health Fahrettin Koca announced the latest statistics regarding the COVID-19 pandemic at a press briefing this Friday. ... Devamı

Fed's new stimulus steps

The Federal Reserve announced a series of stimulus measures of up to 2.3 trillion USD to provide financing support to SMEs and local governments suffering from coronavirus pandemics. ... Devamı

IMF considers new funding opportunity to solve the USD liquidity crisis

In coordination with the Fed and the US Treasury, the IMF is preparing to open a new swap funding window to support countries that are experiencing difficulties with USD funding. ... Devamı

Turkey’s inflation cools down in March due to lower demand and oil prices

Turkey’s Inflation, which rose 12.4% yoy in February, fell to 11.9% in March. (Tera Menkul ) ... Devamı

Mixed effects expected for Turkish inflation

Turkey’s March inflation figures will be released on Friday and our inflation forecast is 0.9% on a monthly basis, which will cause an increase of 12.2% on an annual basis. ... Devamı

Recession effect will be felt more after March due to coronavirus

According to the data announced by Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and IHS Markit; Turkey’s manufacturing PMI has decreased below the threshold of 50 moderate decline in March and reached the level of 48.1, from February’s index value of 52.4. ... Devamı

PMI falls to 48.1 due to COVID-19 outbreak

The latest PMI® survey data from Istanbul Chamber of Industry and IHS Markit highlighted the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on business conditions for Turkish manufacturers at the end of the first quarter. Output and new orders both softened, while firms scaled back purchasing activity. On a positive note, employment continued to increase ... Devamı

Fed starts repo operations for foreign countries

The new step of the Fed opens a new repo facility to the foreign central banks in order for the financial market to function smoothly. ... Devamı

Coronavirus can live on surfaces for up to 72 hours

According to the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) report published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19 disease can live on surfaces from a few hours up to a few days. ... Devamı

Барселонский клуб снижает заработную плату

Barcelona Club решил понизить зарплату всем звездам футбола и работникам клуба во время карантина в стране. ... Devamı

US and Germany economic stimulus packages

In order to minimize the economic damage effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, the packages are passed through the assemblies.(Tera Menkul) ... Devamı

The first reflections on industry leading indicators

In this period, while the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.7 points, it was 75.3%; seasonally adjusted CUR fell to 76.2%. ... Devamı

Deaths due to COVID-19 reach 21 at Turkey

Turkey’s Health Minister Fahrettin Koca announced on his Twitter this Saturday that 12 died in one day due to the deadly virus, making Turkey’s total virus deaths 21. ... Devamı

Turkish Government hands out Arabic self-protection brochures against the Coronavirus

Turkey’s Directorate of Communications, a communications division under the Turkish Presidency, is handing out pamphlets in Arabic that gives information on how to avoid the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Turkey is running active prevention and briefing operations against the spread of the virus outside of her borders. ... Devamı

Central banks coordinate to ease USD liquidity tightness via swap

Central banks will also continue their 84-day maturity transactions per week ... Devamı

Turkey’s Minister of Health, Fahrettin Koca announced Turkey’s first death due to Coronavirus.

Koca added that 51 more people tested positive for the virus, bringing the total number of infected to 98. ... Devamı